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Author Topic: Lisa Tank Problem  (Read 72926 times)

compu_85

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #105 on: August 30, 2024, 09:32:05 pm »

Hm ya, the 0th day of 1983??  ???
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fri0701

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #106 on: August 30, 2024, 09:41:40 pm »

Our "tank problem" math is way off because a ton of applenets got reused.

FWIW, I basically trust the 90,000 number.

I've been working with a new idea of how to estimate this number more accurately.
If you graph AppleNet# vs Date, you'll see that there are bands of time where the AppleNets strictly increase, and then at some point, the starting number seems to "reset" to a different random value and continue up from there. The duplicate AppleNet numbers we've found appear in different "bands", so it appears they overlapped each other from time to time.

I took the dataset and divided it up into these "monotonically increasing bands" (where the AppleNet numbers strictly increase), performed a tank problem calculation for each band, and added them all up. This analysis produces a total Lisa production count estimate of 52,876 - which is more in line with what we're seeing than ~10k when calculated over the entire dataset.
Do note that some bands have only a few AppleNets in them, and when you add more numbers to the middle of a band the tank problem estimate tends to decrease, so this likely tends to be an overestimate and is subject to change as we discover new machines.

I'll keep adding new machines as I find them and see if the number changes dramatically. Food for thought for anyone else interested in this very specific statistics problem  :)
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compu_85

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #107 on: August 31, 2024, 12:51:48 am »

Nice work! I'd been thinking about doing something similar, or at least mapping out the possible overlaps, and also try to break down known systems by factory.

As Lisas transition from vintage computers to rare collectible objects I think the work we've done to catalog known systems will be valuable. It's a good way to spot fake Lisa 1s.

-J
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fri0701

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #108 on: September 03, 2024, 06:08:09 pm »

Adjusting my calculation to skip segments of days where we have yet to track a single Lisa having been produced, the tank problem estimate goes down significantly to 40,824.

Interestingly, there seem to have been no Lisas produced from March 15 - June 5th, 1984 (the longest empty span we've seen so far); especially curious since the Lisa 2 line had just been announced alongside the Macintosh a few months earlier in January. Perhaps Apple had "overproduced" Lisas to such a degree that they decided to temporarily halt production, an early indication that the whole Lisa line was in significant trouble?
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ried

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #109 on: September 27, 2024, 03:18:32 pm »

One more for the tracking sheet: https://imgur.com/a/FcQgtJJ

It's a Lisa 2/5 which appears to have originally been a Lisa 1. Difficult to make out some of the numbers.
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pl212

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #110 on: September 27, 2024, 03:49:14 pm »

My best guess would be:

Serial No ?08B831590258
Applenet No 00102659
Manufactured 83159
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blusnowkitty

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #111 on: September 27, 2024, 03:54:53 pm »

My 2/5 also most likely started life as a 1 and was converted; it similarly has a misaligned serial number label. Barring prototypes, we haven't found any evidence to suggest there were other serials besides the B08B and the A format, so the serial starting with B08B is most likely what this one is too.
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ChiTownMike

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #112 on: September 29, 2024, 11:50:20 pm »

Hi

Line 172 in the spreadsheet is incorrect - I own A4283090 / Applenet 00106218 / Manuf - 4283 -

This machine was sold to me by the original owner (not on ebay) in Illinios - sole owner with original packaging.  BTW your line 172 has a different Applenet.

This is an 2/10 machine with the original Lisa logo on the front.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2024, 11:51:53 pm by ChiTownMike »
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ried

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #113 on: September 30, 2024, 12:17:40 am »

This is an 2/10 machine with the original Lisa logo on the front.

Is it a bezel from MacEffects? I have seen their custom Lisa 2 bezel (featuring the original Lisa logo placement) in one of the proprietor's photos before.

Or does yours simply have a Lisa logo attached?
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compu_85

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #114 on: September 30, 2024, 01:13:22 pm »

Hi

Line 172 in the spreadsheet is incorrect - I own A4283090 / Applenet 00106218 / Manuf - 4283 -


Ah cool. I snapped a photo of it when I was at the event.
This machine was owned by a the LisaList mailing list member circa 2010: https://lisalist2.com/lisalist1/0507.html

-J
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ChiTownMike

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #115 on: September 30, 2024, 09:34:33 pm »

It was the original Lisa metallic emblem on the front next to the 3.5 drive.


This is an 2/10 machine with the original Lisa logo on the front.

Is it a bezel from MacEffects? I have seen their custom Lisa 2 bezel (featuring the original Lisa logo placement) in one of the proprietor's photos before.

Or does yours simply have a Lisa logo attached?
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ChiTownMike

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #116 on: September 30, 2024, 09:37:13 pm »

Hmm - interesting - as I shared the guy I bought it from is the original owner - but again different applenet number - he was a developer and bought it to code for the mac.

Hi

Line 172 in the spreadsheet is incorrect - I own A4283090 / Applenet 00106218 / Manuf - 4283 -


Ah cool. I snapped a photo of it when I was at the event.
This machine was owned by a the LisaList mailing list member circa 2010: https://lisalist2.com/lisalist1/0507.html

-J
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Steve100

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #117 on: October 06, 2024, 06:45:28 am »

Another one to add. This is mine and I’m only the second owner. It’s a fully working 2/5 and it’s in the UK.
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Steve100

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #118 on: October 06, 2024, 01:47:11 pm »

Sorry not sure why the photo came out so enormous. Should be readable however
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compu_85

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Re: Lisa Tank Problem
« Reply #119 on: October 08, 2024, 12:23:44 pm »

Congrats on having such an early system. It was a Lisa 1, made a week into series production.

-J
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