I've been trying to lay down some "invariants" I see across the recorded serial numbers, and I wanted to hear your thoughts:
1. AppleNet numbers are unique, likely sequential with no gaps, and one was assigned to each machine. I know that we have a conflict with #00104218, but that's the only one we've seen, so I'm tempted to count it as a one-off mistake for now. Since this number is used for copy protection (and perhaps was planned as a global ID number for AppleNet), surely this was meant to be unique.
2. Taking an AppleNet number and subtracting the last digits of the S/N (which I'll refer to as the "batch count" here) gives you a "batch start" number. Each day has one and only one of these "batch start" numbers.
There are some cases where a "batch start" number is shared across multiple days. It is also clear that, although there was a general upward trend, these "batch start" numbers (and therefore, the AppleNet numbers in general) did not monotonically increase as time went on.
My working theory is that on any given day, the factory chose a batch of AppleNet numbers to produce, denoted by a "batch start" number. They didn't necessarily start at the beginning of that range, but picked an open section within it and produced what they could that day. The fact that the same "batch start" number is shared between some days greatly reduces the estimate of the number of Lisas produced from just counting up the "batch count" numbers per day.
As for the total number of Lisas, if we do hold rule #1 above, the number of Lisas produced would be around 12,000 via the tank problem.
Hopefully we can keep refining these theories and numbers as we log more machines! I'd love to hear anyone's thoughts on this.