Our "tank problem" math is way off because a *ton* of applenets got reused.

FWIW, I basically trust the 90,000 number.

I've been working with a new idea of how to estimate this number more accurately.

If you graph AppleNet# vs Date, you'll see that there are bands of time where the AppleNets strictly increase, and then at some point, the starting number seems to "reset" to a different random value and continue up from there. The duplicate AppleNet numbers we've found appear in different "bands", so it appears they overlapped each other from time to time.

I took the dataset and divided it up into these "monotonically increasing bands" (where the AppleNet numbers strictly increase), performed a tank problem calculation for each band, and added them all up.

**This analysis produces a total Lisa production count estimate of 52,876** - which is more in line with what we're seeing than ~10k when calculated over the entire dataset.

*Do note that some bands have only a few AppleNets in them, and when you add more numbers to the middle of a band the tank problem estimate tends to decrease, so this likely tends to be an overestimate and is subject to change as we discover new machines.*I'll keep adding new machines as I find them and see if the number changes dramatically. Food for thought for anyone else interested in this very specific statistics problem